NP-SP-07 · Capacity Planning & Utilization

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Process Flow Diagram (BPMN)

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L4 Process Steps

Step	Step Name	Role / Swim Lane	System	Input	Output	KPI	Dec?	Exc?
Phase 1 1.1	Extract historical O&D traffic data	Network Planning Analyst	Amadeus SkyCAST	Planning cycle trigger; 24-month O&D booking history	Baseline O&D traffic dataset by market and quarter	Data completeness ≥98% of active markets	N	N
1.2	Run demand forecast for planning horizon	Demand Forecasting Analyst	Amadeus SkyCAST	Historical O&D dataset; macro-economic indices; event calendar	12-month segment-level demand forecast by frequency band	Forecast MAPE ≤8% at 90-day horizon	N	N
1.3	Validate forecast variance against prior cycle	Network Planning Analyst	Amadeus SkyCAST	Current forecast; prior planning cycle forecast	Variance report flagging markets with >5% deviation	Forecast variance report produced within 2 business days of data extraction	Y	N
1.4	Identify routes requiring capacity uplift	Network Planning Analyst	Amadeus SkySYM	Validated demand forecast; current schedule frequencies	Prioritised list of routes with capacity gap ≥10 seats/day average	Capacity gap identification covering 100% of markets with forecast load factor ≥85%	N	N
Phase 2 2.1	Run initial fleet assignment optimisation	Fleet Assignment Analyst	Amadeus SkyMAX	Capacity gap list; available fleet inventory by subfleet	Draft fleet assignment plan with gauge per rotation	Fleet utilisation ≥13.5 block hours/aircraft/day across active rotations	N	N
2.2	Detect constraint violations in fleet plan	Fleet Assignment Analyst	Amadeus SkyMAX	Draft fleet assignment plan	Constraint violation report (turn-time, gauge, balance)	Zero hard constraint violations (MTOW, turn-time) in approved plan	Y	Y
2.3	Adjust gauge on constrained rotations	Fleet Assignment Analyst	Amadeus SkyWORKS	Constraint violation report; alternate fleet availability	Revised gauge assignments with documented trade-off notes	All gauge adjustments resolved and re-optimised within 3 business days	N	N
2.4	Validate tail-count balance across network	Network Operations Analyst	Amadeus SkyMAX	Revised fleet assignment plan; overnight parking constraints by station	Balanced fleet assignment confirming overnight positions by station	Overnight positioning plan with zero unresolved imbalances before SSIM submission	N	Y
Phase 3 3.1	Assess slot and gate availability constraints	Slot Coordination Analyst	IATA CRS (Coordinated Reservation System)	Validated fleet assignment plan; airport coordination level classifications	Slot availability matrix for Level 2/3 airports	100% of Level 3 coordinated airports reviewed before SSIM submission	Y	Y
3.2	Review maintenance capacity windows	Line Maintenance Planner	AMOS by Swiss AviationSoftware	Fleet assignment plan; upcoming A/C-check and C-check schedules	Maintenance conflict report showing aircraft unavailability periods	Zero unplanned maintenance conflicts in 90-day rolling capacity plan	N	Y
3.3	Validate crew availability against planned capacity	Crew Planning Analyst	Jeppesen Crew Management	Validated fleet assignment plan; crew headcount and qualification data	Crew coverage report by base and crew position	Crew coverage ratio ≥105% (buffer above minimum legal complement)	Y	Y
3.4	Resolve crew or slot deficits via capacity swap	Network Planner	Amadeus SkyWORKS	Crew coverage report; slot availability matrix; maintenance conflict report	Revised capacity plan with documented frequency or gauge reductions	All crew and slot deficits resolved before SSIM filing deadline	N	N
Phase 4 4.1	Generate SSIM schedule file for submission	Schedule Planning Analyst	Amadeus SkyWORKS	Approved capacity plan; airline designator codes and flight number series	SSIM Chapter 7 formatted schedule file	SSIM file generated within 1 business day of capacity plan sign-off	N	N
4.2	Validate SSIM file against IATA standards	Schedule Coordinator	OAG Schedule Analyser	SSIM Chapter 7 file	Validation report; corrected SSIM file if errors found	Zero critical SSIM errors at point of GDS submission	Y	Y
4.3	Submit validated schedule to GDS and NDC channels	Distribution Analyst	Amadeus GDS / Sabre GDS / NDC API Gateway	Validated SSIM file	Schedule live in Amadeus, Sabre, Travelport, and NDC channel	Schedule available in all GDS channels within 4 hours of SSIM submission; NDC availability within 2 hours	N	Y
Phase 5 5.1	Monitor in-period seat utilization vs forecast	Revenue Management Analyst	Amadeus Revenue Management (NRM / AltéaRM)	Live booking data; capacity plan baseline	Weekly utilization dashboard by market and departure date	System load factor ≥83% on average across active network; individual market load factor reviewed weekly	Y	N
5.2	Trigger capacity reoptimisation for underperforming routes	Network Planning Analyst	Amadeus SkyCAST	Utilization dashboard; routes with load factor <78% within 60 days of departure	Reoptimisation recommendation: frequency reduction, gauge swap, or fare stimulus	Reoptimisation recommendation issued within 48 hours of load factor breach trigger	N	Y
5.3	Log final utilization KPIs and close planning cycle	Network Planning Analyst	Tableau / AWS Redshift	Post-departure load factor actuals; forecast baseline	Post-cycle capacity utilization report with variance analysis	Post-cycle report published within 5 business days of season end; forecast vs actual load factor variance documented for model calibration	N	N

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Process Attributes

Identification

Process IDNP-SP-07

L1 DomainNetwork Planning & Scheduling

L2 ProcessSchedule Planning

L3 NameCapacity Planning & Utilization

L4 Steps18 across 5 phases

Decision Gates6 (all with iteration loops)

Exceptions8 documented

Swim Lanes (Roles)

Network Planning Analyst

Demand Forecasting Analyst

Fleet Assignment Analyst

Network Operations Analyst

Slot Coordination Analyst

Line Maintenance Planner

Crew Planning Analyst

Network Planner

Schedule Planning Analyst

Schedule Coordinator

Distribution Analyst

Revenue Management Analyst

Systems & Tools

Amadeus SkyCASTAmadeus SkySYMAmadeus SkyMAXAmadeus SkyWORKSIATA CRS (Coordinated Reservation System)AMOS by Swiss AviationSoftwareJeppesen Crew ManagementOAG Schedule AnalyserAmadeus GDS / Sabre GDS / NDC API GatewayAmadeus Revenue Management (NRM / AltéaRM)Tableau / AWS Redshift

Key Performance Indicators

Extract historical O&D traffic dataData completeness ≥98% of active markets

Run demand forecast for planning horizonForecast MAPE ≤8% at 90-day horizon

Validate forecast variance against prior cycleForecast variance report produced within 2 business days of data extraction

Identify routes requiring capacity upliftCapacity gap identification covering 100% of markets with forecast load factor ≥85%

Run initial fleet assignment optimisationFleet utilisation ≥13.5 block hours/aircraft/day across active rotations

Detect constraint violations in fleet planZero hard constraint violations (MTOW, turn-time) in approved plan

Adjust gauge on constrained rotationsAll gauge adjustments resolved and re-optimised within 3 business days

Validate tail-count balance across networkOvernight positioning plan with zero unresolved imbalances before SSIM submission

Airline-Specific Risks & Pain Points

SkyCAST data feeds depend on Altéa PSS booking exports; delays in PSS batch jobs cause stale baseline traffic inputs, distorting forecasts for thin markets

Thin LCC markets and new routes lack sufficient booking history; SkyCAST model defaults to industry averages, understating demand elasticity for fare-sensitive leisure segments

Manual comparison between planning cycles is error-prone; no automated delta alerting in SkyCAST baseline module — analyst must export to Excel for comparison

SkySYM network simulation does not natively import SkyCAST output in real time; manual CSV handoff between tools introduces reconciliation lag of 1–2 days

SkyMAX optimiser is sensitive to input parameter sequencing; incorrect fleet availability seeding (e.g., aircraft in scheduled maintenance not flagged) generates infeasible rotations that require manual correction

SkyMAX surface-level constraint checker does not model real-time gate availability at congested airports (e.g., LHR, JFK slots); gate conflicts surface only post-filing via airport coordination

Inputs / Outputs

Primary InputPlanning cycle trigger; 24-month O&D booking history

Primary OutputPost-cycle capacity utilization report with variance analysis

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