New Market Entry Feasibility
Network Planning & Scheduling › Schedule Planning · 18 L4 steps · 6 phases · 6 decision gates · Updated 2026-03-18 17:51
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Process Flow Diagram (BPMN)
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L4 Process Steps
| Step | Step Name | Role / Swim Lane | System | Input | Output | KPI | Dec? | Exc? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Phase 1 1.1 |
Scan unserved O&D opportunities | Network Planning Analyst | Amadeus SkyCAST | Historical booking data, MIDT traffic feeds, interline itinerary reports | Long list of candidate unserved or underserved city pairs | Minimum 20 candidate markets identified per planning cycle | N | N |
| 1.2 | Benchmark competitor schedules on candidates | Network Planning Analyst | OAG Schedule Analyser | Candidate city-pair list from step 1.1 | Competitor capacity, frequency, and fare level summary per market | Competitive gap identified for ≥60% of shortlisted markets | N | N |
| 1.3 | Screen markets against minimum demand threshold | Senior Network Planner | AWS Redshift | O&D traffic volumes and OAG competitor data | Shortlisted markets with ≥150 unserved or recapturable pax/day | Demand threshold screening accuracy ≥90% vs. post-launch actuals | Y | N |
Phase 2 2.1 |
Forecast 12-month O&D demand per market | Demand Forecasting Analyst | Amadeus SkyCAST | Shortlisted markets, seasonality curves, macro-economic indices | Monthly O&D demand forecast with P10/P50/P90 confidence bands | Forecast MAPE ≤8% at 90-day horizon | N | N |
| 2.2 | Simulate network spill and recapture impact | Network Simulation Analyst | Amadeus SkySYM | Demand forecast, existing schedule SSIM file | Incremental revenue estimate, spill/recapture matrix, connecting feed impact | Spill recapture rate ≥35% for new route | N | N |
| 2.3 | Model yield and price elasticity | Revenue Management Analyst | Amadeus Revenue Management (NRM) | Demand forecast, competitor fare benchmarks from OAG | Projected RASM, average fare, and fare class mix by month | Projected RASM ≥ CASM + 15% margin at base-case load factor of 83% | Y | N |
| 2.4 | Produce consolidated revenue forecast report | Senior Network Planner | Tableau | RASM/CASM output from NRM and SkyCAST | Revenue forecast dashboard and market scorecard | Scorecard completed within 2 business days of demand model sign-off | N | N |
Phase 3 3.1 |
Optimise fleet assignment for candidate route | Fleet Planning Analyst | Amadeus SkyMAX | Proposed frequency and timing, existing fleet utilisation plan | Optimal aircraft gauge and rotation plan for new route | Fleet utilisation ≥12.5 block hours/aircraft/day post-addition | Y | N |
| 3.2 | Evaluate frequency and timing trade-offs | Network Planning Analyst | Amadeus SkyWORKS | Fleet assignment output, competitive departure timing benchmarks | Recommended departure times and frequency options (1x, 2x, 3x daily) | Scheduling conflict rate <5% in SkyWORKS validation | N | N |
| 3.3 | Confirm spare aircraft availability at launch date | Fleet Planning Analyst | Amadeus SkyWORKS | Proposed launch date, fleet delivery schedule, maintenance forecast | Aircraft availability confirmation or gap identification | Spare cover ratio ≥5% of active fleet on launch date | N | Y |
Phase 4 4.1 |
Check slot availability at origin and destination | Schedule Coordination Analyst | IATA CRS (Coordinated Reservation System) | Proposed departure times, airport coordination level (L1/L2/L3) | Slot availability status, coordination response, or waiver requirement | Preferred slot obtained within ±30 min of target for ≥80% of requests | N | Y |
| 4.2 | Validate gate and ground handling feasibility | Airport Operations Planner | SITA Airport Management System (AMS) | Proposed departure and arrival times, station gate inventory | Gate assignment feasibility report and required turnaround buffer | Gate conflict rate <2% for new route insertion | N | N |
| 4.3 | Assess crew pairing efficiency for new route | Crew Planning Analyst | Jeppesen Crew Management | Proposed schedule, crew base locations, FAR Part 117 duty limits | Crew pairing cost estimate and minimum crew headcount requirement | Crew cost per block hour for new route ≤ system average + 10% | Y | N |
Phase 5 5.1 |
Build full-route P&L model | Network Finance Business Partner | SAP S/4HANA Finance (FI/CO) | RASM forecast, CASM drivers, crew cost estimate, airport fees | 12-month route P&L with EBIT, ROIC, and contribution margin | ROIC ≥12% in base-case scenario at month 12 | N | N |
| 5.2 | Run sensitivity and break-even load factor analysis | Network Finance Business Partner | Tableau | P&L model, P10/P50/P90 demand scenarios from SkyCAST | Break-even load factor, downside ROIC, and go/no-go recommendation | Break-even load factor ≤75%; downside P10 ROIC ≥6% | Y | N |
Phase 6 6.1 |
Compile and submit commercial committee pack | Director of Network Planning | AWS S3 | Business case deck, P&L model, ops feasibility sign-off, demand forecast | Formal new market entry proposal submitted to Commercial Committee | Pack submission ≥10 business days before committee review date | Y | N |
| 6.2 | File approved schedule and slots in SkyWORKS | Schedule Coordination Analyst | Amadeus SkyWORKS | Commercial Committee approval, proposed SSIM schedule record | New market schedule inserted into official season file | Schedule filed ≥120 days before service start (IATA SSIM standard) | N | Y |
| 6.3 | Publish new route to GDS and NDC channels | Distribution Systems Analyst | NDC API Gateway | Approved SSIM schedule, fare filing from ATPCO | New route live in Sabre GDS, Travelport GDS, Amadeus GDS, and NDC channel | GDS content live ≥90 days before first departure; NDC content live within 24 hours of GDS | N | N |
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